Median Home Prices Across Middle Tennessee in 2026: Davidson, Williamson, Sumner, Wilson & Rutherford Compared

If you are comparing where to buy across Middle Tennessee in 2026, the single most useful number to anchor on is the median sale price by county — because the spread between them is wide. Based on Redfin county data dated between October 2025 and May 2026: Williamson County carried a median sale price of about $975,000 (Oct 2025), while Wilson County ran about $499,000–$510,000, Davidson County (Nashville/Metro) about $470,000 (March 2026), Sumner County about $442,000 (Dec 2025), and Rutherford County about $425,700 (May 2026). In plain terms: a buyer's dollar stretches roughly twice as far in Sumner or Rutherford as it does in Williamson, for homes that are often only 25–40 minutes apart.

Most market reports cover one county at a time, which makes it hard to see the actual trade-offs. Our team built this piece to put all five core counties on one dated table so you can compare them directly. Below you'll find the median prices, price-per-square-foot, and days-on-market figures we verified at publish (per Redfin), the standout Williamson-vs-Sumner gap, and what named national forecasters (Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of REALTORS) are projecting for the rest of 2026 — presented as a range, because forecasts vary and no one can guarantee where prices go next.

Middle Tennessee median home prices by county (2026)

Here is the five-county snapshot, drawn from Redfin's county housing-market pages with the date label each figure carried when we verified it. County medians blend all home types (single-family, condos, townhomes) unless noted, so they sit a little differently than a single-family-only number. We re-check these against the RealTracs MLS before relying on them for a specific home.

• •Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station) — median sale price about $975,000 (Oct 2025), up roughly 6.5% year over year; about $326 per square foot (up 5.2%); around 67 days on market. Source: Redfin.
• •Wilson County (Mt. Juliet, Lebanon, Watertown) — median sale price about $499,000 over the three months ending April 2026 (up 0.7% YoY) and about $509,900 in March 2026 (up 3.6% YoY); about $218 per square foot; around 73 days on market. Source: Redfin.
• •Davidson County / Nashville Metro (Nashville, plus the satellite cities) — median sale price about $470,000 (March 2026), up about 1.1% year over year; about $271 per square foot; around 98 days on market. Source: Redfin.
• •Sumner County (Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Portland, White House) — median sale price about $442,000 (Dec 2025), up about 6.3% year over year; about $221 per square foot (up 5.5%); around 89 days on market. Source: Redfin.
• •Rutherford County (Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne) — median sale price about $425,700 (May 2026), down about 2.0% year over year; about $215 per square foot. Source: Redfin.

For a regional benchmark, Greater Nashville REALTORS reported a median single-family home price of $499,900 in March 2026 across its nine-county service area — a $10,000 increase year over year. That official MLS figure is single-family-only and covers Davidson, Williamson, Sumner, Wilson, Rutherford, Cheatham, Dickson, Maury and Robertson counties, which is why it lands higher than the all-types Davidson median above.

The Williamson-vs-Sumner gap is the story of the map

The widest, most consequential price gap in Middle Tennessee is between Williamson County in the south and Sumner County in the north. At a Williamson median around $975,000 (Oct 2025) and a Sumner median around $442,000 (Dec 2025), you are looking at more than a $500,000 difference for the two suburban counties that most often get compared by buyers leaving Davidson. Both offer large new-construction communities, lakes and rivers nearby, and a commute into central Nashville in the 25–45 minute range depending on where you land and when you drive.

Why the gap? It comes down to supply, land cost, and price-per-square-foot. Williamson runs near $326 per finished square foot; Sumner's countywide figure is about $221 — roughly a third lower. That means the same 2,800-square-foot floor plan that prices around $900,000-plus in a Franklin or Brentwood subdivision can come in dramatically lower in Hendersonville or Gallatin. Our team works both counties, and we are candid with buyers about the math: if your priorities are square footage, a newer build, or lake access per dollar, Sumner deserves a serious look. If your priorities pull you toward Williamson's specific corridors, we'll help you find the most value inside that market rather than steer you away from it.

How to read a median price (so it actually helps you)

A countywide median is a starting point, not a quote. A few things change the picture fast:

• •All-types vs single-family. County pages often blend condos and townhomes into the median, which pulls it down versus a single-family-only number like the Greater Nashville REALTORS $499,900.
• •Price per square foot. This is often the cleaner cross-county comparison: roughly $326/sqft in Williamson, ~$271 in Davidson, ~$221 in Sumner, ~$218 in Wilson, and ~$215 in Rutherford as of 2026 (Redfin). It strips out the effect of homes simply being bigger or smaller.
• •Days on market. Davidson was sitting near 98 days and Wilson near 73 days in early 2026 (Redfin) — a sign that the metro has shifted toward more balance and more negotiating room than during the frenzy years.
• •Sub-market spread. Within any county, a waterfront home in Hendersonville, a downtown Franklin historic property, and a new build in Spring Hill are three different markets. The county median averages across all of them.

City-level price points inside each county

Williamson County

Franklin and Brentwood anchor the county's higher end, with Nolensville, Thompson's Station and the Williamson side of Spring Hill offering large new-construction inventory. If you want the detail, see our city guides for Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville and Spring Hill.

Sumner County

Hendersonville and Gallatin lead in volume, with Goodlettsville, White House and Portland giving buyers lower entry points and active new-construction. Old Hickory Lake frontage is a defining feature here. Our Hendersonville and Gallatin guides go deeper on subdivisions and lake access.

Rutherford County

Murfreesboro is the population center and one of the fastest-growing cities in the state, with Smyrna and La Vergne offering some of the most accessible price points in the metro. Heavy new-construction activity has helped keep Rutherford's per-square-foot figure among the lowest of the five counties, at about $215 (Redfin).

Wilson County

Mt. Juliet sits right against Davidson's eastern edge — popular with buyers who want a short Nashville commute — while Lebanon offers more land and a lower price-per-square-foot. Wilson's countywide median runs near $499,000–$510,000 depending on the time window, but the spread between Mt. Juliet and rural Wilson is wide.

Davidson County (Nashville)

Davidson holds the urban core and the widest range of any county here — from condos and townhomes downtown to single-family neighborhoods across Metro. Its all-types median near $470,000 understates what a detached single-family home in many neighborhoods runs, which is exactly why per-square-foot (about $271, Redfin) and neighborhood-level data matter so much in the city.

What named forecasters expect for the rest of 2026

We don't make price predictions in our own voice — no one can guarantee where the market goes. But it's fair to share what the major national forecasters published for 2026, and these views genuinely vary, which itself is the point. For a current rate anchor: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.49% the week of June 25, 2026, holding in the mid-6% range through the month.

• •Home prices: Fannie Mae projected national home-price growth of about 3.2% for 2026; the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projected national prices roughly flat — slowing to about 1% and dipping slightly negative late in the year; and the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) projected around 4%. That's a wide range — from a slight decline to mid-single-digit growth.
• •Mortgage rates: Fannie Mae (May 2026 forecast) projected the 30-year fixed averaging around 6.3% across 2026; the MBA projected rates holding in roughly a 6.0%–6.5% range; NAR projected rates averaging around 6.0% in 2026.
• •Local read: Greater Nashville REALTORS has described 2026 as a shift toward balance — more inventory and steadier pricing rather than the rapid run-ups of prior years.

The honest takeaway: credible experts disagree, national numbers won't map perfectly onto any one Middle Tennessee county, and the future can't be guaranteed. What we can do is read the current factors — dated medians, inventory, days on market, and rate quotes you actually qualify for — and help you make a clear-eyed decision for the home you're looking at right now.

Frequently asked questions

Which Middle Tennessee county has the lowest median home price in 2026?

Among the five core counties, Rutherford (about $425,700, May 2026) and Sumner (about $442,000, Dec 2025) carried the lowest county medians, per Redfin. Surrounding counties like Robertson, Cheatham and Maury can run lower still. Exact figures shift month to month, so we re-verify against the RealTracs MLS before pricing a specific home.

Why is Williamson County so much more expensive than the others?

Williamson's median ran near $975,000 in October 2025 (Redfin) on the strength of higher price-per-square-foot (around $326), strong demand in Franklin and Brentwood, and limited land for new supply in its most sought-after corridors. Counties to the north and southeast — Sumner, Rutherford, Wilson — deliver more square footage per dollar.

Is the median price for single-family homes or all home types?

It depends on the source. Redfin's county medians generally blend all home types, which is why Davidson's all-types median (~$470,000) reads lower than the Greater Nashville REALTORS single-family-only median ($499,900 in March 2026). When you're comparing, make sure you're comparing the same measure — we'll always tell you which one we're quoting.

Will home prices in Middle Tennessee go up or down in 2026?

We can't predict that, and we won't. National forecasters published a range for 2026 — from roughly flat or a slight decline (MBA) to mid-single-digit growth (NAR, ~4%; Fannie Mae, ~3.2%) — and they openly disagree. Locally, Greater Nashville REALTORS has described the market as shifting toward more balance with rising inventory. The smartest move is to look at current, dated data for the specific county and home you want.