Who is moving to Nashville? The short answer: most newcomers are domestic movers relocating from higher-cost states, led by Illinois (about 20.9% of Tennessee's net positive domestic migration), California (about 18.7%) and Florida (about 7.9%), according to Placer.ai's analysis of net domestic migration for July 2020 through July 2024. On top of that domestic flow sits a smaller and, in 2025, sharply shrinking stream of international newcomers. In raw numbers, Davidson County added roughly 9,300 residents in the year ending July 1, 2025 — reaching an estimated 745,904 people and the single largest one-year population gain of any Tennessee county, according to the Tennessee State Data Center at the University of Tennessee (March 30, 2026), drawing on U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Beyond Davidson, the fast-growing suburban ring — Rutherford, Wilson, Williamson, Sumner, Maury and Montgomery counties — added thousands more, and the Nashville metro captured the largest share of Tennessee's net inbound migration (about 24.6% of the state's total from 2020 to 2024, per Placer.ai). Below, our team pulls the primary-source numbers together in one place so you can see exactly who is moving here, how fast the region is growing, and what changed in 2025.
Nashville's net growth by the numbers
Population growth in a region comes from three components: births minus deaths (natural increase), domestic migration (people moving in from other U.S. states and counties), and international migration. For the year ending July 1, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau county estimates compiled by the Tennessee State Data Center show Davidson County leading the state in raw numeric growth (figures rounded to the nearest hundred):
- •Davidson County (Nashville): about +9,300 residents in one year, +1.3%, to an estimated 745,904 — Tennessee's largest single-county gain (TN State Data Center / U.S. Census, March 30, 2026).
- •Rutherford County (Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne): +6,266 residents, +1.6%.
- •Wilson County (Mt. Juliet, Lebanon): +4,693 residents, +2.8%.
- •Maury County (Spring Hill, Columbia): +3,675 residents, +3.2%.
- •Montgomery County (Clarksville): +3,654 residents, +1.5%.
- •Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville): +3,575 residents, +1.3%.
- •Sumner County (Hendersonville, Gallatin, Portland): +3,357 residents, +1.6%.
Two patterns stand out. First, the core city is still adding people fastest in absolute terms — Davidson's roughly 9,300 net new residents dwarf any single suburban county. Second, several outlying counties are growing faster on a percentage basis: among the major Middle Tennessee suburban counties, Maury (+3.2%) and Wilson (+2.8%) lead, though the single fastest-growing county statewide by rate was small Trousdale County (+3.6%). That combination — a dense, growing urban core plus rapidly expanding suburbs — is exactly why Middle Tennessee's housing market stays active across so many price points.
The 2025 story: international migration cooled, domestic demand held
The most important year-over-year change is in international migration. The Tennessee State Data Center reports that Davidson County's net international migration fell to 5,887 in 2025, down by more than 8,200 from 14,102 the prior year. The pullback was statewide: net international migration into Tennessee dropped about 62% in 2025, and 36 counties recorded negative international migration that year, up from just six in 2024. The data center identifies declining international migration as the primary driver of the slowdown, consistent with a broader nationwide cooling rather than any single local factor.
Despite that drop, the region kept growing — a sign that domestic migration and natural increase carried the load. The same pattern repeats in the suburbs: Rutherford's net international migration eased to 1,747 (from 4,657), Williamson's to 762 (from 1,324), Wilson's to 537 (from 1,120), and Montgomery's to 473 (from 1,154). Montgomery County, home to Clarksville and Fort Campbell, was a notable case where natural increase — more births than deaths — was the prevailing source of population change.
Why this matters for buyers and sellers
Population estimates describe the past year, not the future. We don't predict prices or appreciation — no one reliably can. But knowing the actual sources and pace of growth helps you read current conditions: where new-construction demand is concentrated, which submarkets draw the most relocating households, and where inventory and competition are shifting.
615-265-1000Where are people moving to Nashville from?
On origin states, the cleanest recent breakdown comes from Placer.ai's analysis of net domestic migration into Tennessee for July 2020 through July 2024. It found the largest shares of newcomers came from:
- Illinois — about 20.9% of Tennessee's net positive domestic migration.
- California — about 18.7%.
- Florida — about 7.9%.
Per that analysis, Illinois and California together accounted for nearly 40% of Tennessee's net positive domestic migration over the period, while East Coast states collectively contributed roughly a third (about 33.6%). Within Tennessee, the Nashville metro captured the largest share of the state's net inbound migration — about 24.6% from July 2020 to July 2024 — ahead of Knoxville (18.7%), Chattanooga (9.0%), Kingsport-Bristol (8.7%) and Johnson City (6.0%), according to Placer.ai.
For deeper origin-by-origin detail, the U.S. Census Bureau's state-to-state migration flows and the IRS SOI county-to-county migration data are the primary public sources. Both confirm Tennessee's standing as one of the country's top net-inbound states in recent years. If you're relocating from one of these states, our team maintains city-specific relocation guides — ask us for the one that matches where you're coming from.
How big is the Nashville region now?
Definitions matter when you see a population figure quoted. Macrotrends' Nashville metro-area series puts the area at roughly 1.35 million for 2025, while the broader Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin Metropolitan Statistical Area — which spans Davidson plus more than a dozen surrounding counties — was about 2.04 million in the U.S. Census Bureau's 2020-2024 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, with more recent annual estimates placing the MSA closer to 2.15 million. So when one source says 'Nashville is approaching 2 million,' it's describing the multi-county metro; a smaller number usually refers to the city or a narrower urban area.
Either way, the trajectory is consistent: sustained growth concentrated in the urban core and the suburban ring. For prospective movers, that's why so much new-home activity is happening outside Davidson County in places like Spring Hill, Mt. Juliet, Nolensville, Gallatin and Murfreesboro, where land and master-planned communities are more available.
Where newcomers tend to land in Middle Tennessee
Migration data tells you the region is growing; it doesn't tell you which community is 'right' for any household — that depends on budget, commute, and personal priorities. Rather than make subjective calls, here are the neutral, practical factors people weigh, with named places to research:
- •Price point and home type: Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville) generally carries the region's higher price points, while Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, Maury and Montgomery counties offer a wider range of new-construction and resale inventory.
- •Commute and access: proximity to I-24, I-40, I-65 and downtown employment corridors shapes daily drive times — worth mapping against your workplace before you choose an area.
- •New construction vs. established neighborhoods: fast-growing counties like Wilson (+2.8%) and Maury (+3.2%) have heavy new-build activity in master-planned communities; closer-in Nashville neighborhoods skew toward established housing.
- •Lifestyle and amenities: lake access (Old Hickory, Percy Priest), downtown walkability, and small-town main streets (Franklin, Gallatin, Murfreesboro) all draw different relocating households.
Our team works across all of these areas, and we can pull current, address-specific public facts — zoning, school assignment, HOA details, recent comparable sales — so your decision is grounded in data rather than generalizations. Explore our city and neighborhood guides for Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Mt. Juliet, Murfreesboro, Spring Hill and Clarksville to compare side by side.
What the forecasters say about the market ahead
We don't make price or appreciation predictions — and we'd encourage caution toward anyone who guarantees them. Forecasts vary, they are updated frequently, and no one can guarantee where rates or prices will land. For a forward look, it's better to cite named forecasters with dates. On mortgage rates, the major outlooks as of mid-2026 cluster in the low-to-mid 6% range for the 30-year fixed: Fannie Mae's May 2026 forecast expects an average near 6.3% through much of 2026; the Mortgage Bankers Association projects roughly 6.5% for 2026; the National Association of Realtors has pointed to about 6.0% by year-end 2026; and Realtor.com's 2026 outlook averages around 6.3%. Treat that as a range, not a promise — and always check each forecaster's most recent release directly, since these projections move with economic conditions. What we can say with confidence is what the current Census data shows: people are still moving to Middle Tennessee in large numbers, and demand is spread across the metro.
Frequently asked questions
How many people are moving to Nashville each year?
Davidson County alone added about 9,300 residents in the year ending July 1, 2025, the largest gain of any Tennessee county (TN State Data Center / U.S. Census). Counting the surrounding metro counties — Rutherford, Williamson, Wilson, Sumner, Maury, Montgomery and others — Middle Tennessee's total annual growth runs well into the tens of thousands.
What states do most Nashville newcomers come from?
Per Placer.ai's analysis of net domestic migration for July 2020–July 2024, the largest shares of people moving to Tennessee came from Illinois (about 20.9%), California (about 18.7%) and Florida (about 7.9%), with the Nashville metro capturing the biggest share of the state's net inbound migration (about 24.6%).
Did Nashville's growth slow down in 2025?
The composition shifted more than the total. International migration into Davidson County fell from 14,102 in 2024 to 5,887 in 2025 (down more than 8,200), and statewide net international migration dropped about 62%, which the TN State Data Center identifies as the primary driver of a broader slowdown. Even so, Davidson County still led the state in numeric growth, carried by domestic migration and natural increase.
Which Middle Tennessee counties are growing fastest?
Among the major Middle Tennessee suburban counties in the year ending July 1, 2025, Maury County grew fastest by rate at +3.2%, followed by Wilson County at +2.8% (the single fastest-growing county statewide by rate was small Trousdale County at +3.6%). By raw numbers, Davidson County (Nashville) added the most people, followed by Rutherford and Wilson counties (TN State Data Center / U.S. Census).
Relocating to Middle Tennessee? Let's talk.
Whether you're moving from Illinois, California, Florida or right next door, our team can match the data above to your budget, commute and timeline — with buyer representation often provided at little or no cost to you, because the seller usually covers it (negotiated, not automatic after the 2024 NAR changes). Call The Will Johnson Team at 615-265-1000 to get a relocation plan and current, address-specific market facts for any Middle Tennessee community.
615-265-1000The Will Johnson Team
Nashville real estate · 12+ years · 60–100 transactions a year